Time to Go, Joe!

Joe Biden was on course to lose this election long before his dismal performance on the national debate stage Thursday night. For months, Biden has had the lowest approval ratings of any President in modern history. According to the website fivethirtyeight.com, Biden’s approval rating as of June 24th stood at 39.9%, below Donald Trump at this point in his Presidency; even below Jimmy Carter or Richard Nixon.

And despite some national polls showing Biden neck and neck with Trump, or even slightly ahead, everyone knows that this is not how elections are decided in this country. National polls are virtually meaningless when the Presidential elections are decided by a very small number of votes in a very small number of states.

In 2016, Donald Trump’s very slim margin of victory in just three states took him over the finish line in terms of Electoral College votes that decide the Presidency. In Michigan, he won by 10,704 votes. In Wisconsin he won by 22,748 votes. And in Pennsylvania he won by 44,292 votes. Without those 77,744 votes in those three states, he would have lost to Hillary Clinton (who nationally received almost 3 million more votes than Trump).

In 2020, Joe Biden also beat Trump by a very slim margin in just four states that took him over the top in the Electoral College, even though he received a total of 7 million more votes than Trump overall. In Arizona, Biden won by just 10,457 votes. In Georgia, he won by just 11,779 votes. In Wisconsin he won by 20,682 votes, and in Nevada he won by just 33,596 votes. Without those 76,514 votes in those four states, Biden would have lost to Trump in 2020.

That is how precarious our elections are because of the way the Electoral College works. The vast majority of states are either “red” or “blue” and it would take a political earthquake to change the outcome of an election in those states. Although there are potentially more “purple” states in play for this election than there have been in recent years, it still comes down to a very small number of states that will determine the outcome in 2024.

As things stand at the moment, with just over four months to go before the election, Trump is ahead in all four of those states that determined the outcome in 2020, according to the polling averages calculated by 270towin.com. Apart from one or two exceptions, these polls have remained relatively constant for more than six months, despite Trump’s hush money trial and subsequent conviction on 34 felony charges. We will know in the next few days whether the debate has shifted these numbers to any significant degree, but the chances of them shifting in Biden’s favor are slim.

In Arizona, Trump is currently ahead of Biden by four percentage points, which translates to a potential lead of more than 100,000 votes there. In April, Trump’s lead in Arizona increased to five points, and in May it dipped down to two points, but over the last five months, Trump’s lead has averaged what it is today at 4%.

In Georgia, Trump’s lead has not dipped below four points in the last five months. His lead has gone up to as much as six points ahead of Biden, but has been remarkably steady at four points above, translating in this case to a lead of more like 200,00 votes.

In Nevada, Trump is currently leading Biden in the polls also by four points, or roughly 50,000 votes. As in Arizona, this has varied over the last five months from as low as three points to as high as six points lead over Biden. But at no point has it looked like Biden might overtake Trump in Nevada.

In terms of the “battleground” states from 2020, only Wisconsin still looks like being up for grabs. Trump has had as much as a four point lead over Biden in Wisconsin at various points during the last five months, while Biden has at times overtaken Trump with as much as a two point lead. Given this volatility in the polls, it seems at least plausible that Biden could retain this state in November.

Although Biden won Pennsylvania by more than 80,000 votes in 2020, it is by no means certain that he can do it again. Trump is currently leading there by three percentage points, which translates to more than 200,000 votes. Biden has at times overtaken Trump in the polls in Pennsylvania, but never by more than two percentage points. Pennsylvania is therefore also still very much in play for the 2024 election.

Another problem for Biden is Michigan, where Trump currently leads by one percentage point, or more than 50,000 votes. Although the polls there have also fluctuated over the past five months, at no point has Biden been in the lead.

And there are other states suddenly in play this year for the first time in recent memory. The most recent polls in Virginia show Trump and Biden in a dead heat, despite Virginia voting consistently Democratic for the last two decades.  In Maine, Trump looks to be on course to win the state outright after having won just one Maine district in 2016 and again in 2020 (Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that split their Electoral College votes by district).

In summary, Trump starts out with 25 “red” states, with a total of 234 Electoral College votes (ECV) already in the bag. He is all but certain to win back the states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, which brings him up to 267 ECV, just three votes shy of victory. Maine alone could put him over the top with 270 ECV, but he also on track to win in Pennsylvania and Michigan, if not Wisconsin or Virginia.

In other words, Biden was almost certain to lose this election in the Electoral College, even before the debate shook his Democratic base to the core. This is the disastrous situation that is facing the country and the world, entirely brought on by Biden himself and those around him. Our only hope of keeping Trump out of the White House is for Biden to step down and for Democrats to choose a new candidate who has a better chance of beating Trump.

Write to Joe Biden today and urge him to step down for the sake of the country!